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January 2, 2001

Biotech startups the wave of the future? Electronic communications networks pushing out the Nasdaq? Red Herring's editors come through with the key influences, from computing to venture capital, that will shape 2001.

By The Editors
From the December 04, 2000 issue

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| Talking Points |
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Think our trends are off base?
LIVE Top ten trends Q & A on November 20 at 4pm Eastern

Debate each trend in our discussion forum

1 Computing
2 Intellectual Property
3 Venture Capital
4 Public Markets
5 Wireless
6 Communications
7 International
8 Government
9 Energy
10 Biotech

Antitrend

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You should have heard the shouting as we squabbled over the selection of the ten trends for 2001 -- many of us were rendered hoarse. What we settled on reflects much heartfelt debate, saber rattling, and table pounding, all evidence of a pack of journalists with passion and a point of view. In the end, we knew which trends mattered most, and we were in agreement.
We settled on the following trends. Our criteria: that they represent either substantial new markets that are beginning to attract significant investment, or are disrupting conventional technology or business models.

While the trends reflect careful reasoning and analysis, we refused to play it safe, which is why some of our forecasts will undoubtedly surprise. Fuel cells powering America's homes and small businesses? Electronic communications networks (ECNs) coöpting the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq? The Internet falling under international regulation? All these we predict will happen in 2001. Trust us.

There was no shortage of compelling candidates. For example, we refused to join in the boosterism surrounding China's accession to the World Trade Organization. While the world's largest market obviously holds vast potential, a single treaty won't quickly reverse decades of international isolation and antiquated business practices. Some staffers lobbied for smart cards, a perennial suggestion from the Europhiles among us. Once again, smart cards were tossed out as a dumb idea. While they might be popular in France, they undoubtedly will lack merchant buy-in and services in 2001. We thought WAP was wack. Instead we glimpsed the future of wireless Internet access in Asia, with Japan's I-mode-enabled cell phones.

Each trend includes a Herring Take -- our bottom-line assessment of the consequences of the trend -- as well as a breakout of the likely winners and losers. This is part of our goal: to inform readers today of innovations everyone else will learn about tomorrow. These are issues the rest of the media will be covering next year. Remember, you read them here first.

First Trend Computing

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Top ten trends 2001

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Introduction

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1 Computing

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2 Intellectual property

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3 Venture capital

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4 Public markets

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5 Wireless

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6 Communications

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7 International

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8 Government

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9 Energy

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10 Biotech

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Antitrend

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A look back at the top ten trends of 2000

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Events The ten trends at NDA

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